The latest numbers from the CDC
- Pace is 14% compared to 16% yesterday
- Deaths at 3603 vs 2860 yesterday
- Deaths +26% vs +19% yesterday
I believe the case count numbers only reflect testing capacity. When you have a +50% hit rate in New York, you're not getting all the cases. The deaths number is a much better metric and my formula for evaluating it is to take the deaths, assume a 1% mortality rate and 25 days from exposure to death. That gives you 360,300 people exposed on March 7 (5-6 days before symptoms appear, on avg). The positive spin on that would be a lower mortality rate, which would mean far more people have been exposed (many without knowing it).
