Headlines from the Canadian federal budget:
- 2014-15 deficit forecast revised to $2.9B from $2.0B
- 2016-17 surplus forecast at $1.7B
- Projects debt-to-GDP falling to 25.5% in 2019-20 from 32.3% last year
- Assumes 2.0% real GDP growth and 1.6% nominal growth in 2015
- Sees 2.2% real GDP growth and 4.9% nominal growth in 2016
- Forecast surplus lowered by $18 billion over the next five years
- Revenue $290B this year, down from $294.5B in Nov projection
- Assumes $67 oil in 2016 (that's rich)
A surplus is no surprise, it's been promised for years and government officials have reiterated that it will come repeatedly. The numbers aren't really consequential for the currency because Canada is in a strong position fiscally, even with oil prices falling.
On the announcements, a gradual drop in the small business rate to 9% from 11% is planned. There is also new money for infrastructure, which could be good news for growth but the commitments are vague or planned a few years out.