Canadian November 2018 consumer price index data
Prior was 2.4% y/y
- CPI -0.4% m/m vs -0.4% m/m expected
- Prior m/m was +0.3%
- Goods -0.7% m/m
- Services -0.1% m/m
- Energy -4.8% m/m
- Ex food and energy -0.3% m/m
Core numbers:
- Core common 1.9% vs 1.9% prior
- Core median 1.9% vs 2.0% prior
- Core trim 1.9% vs 2.1% prior
Note the falls in goods and services inflation. It wasn't just energy prices that fell in November with gasoline down 9.4%, the ex-gasoline measure was down 0.1%. There was a broad deceleration including 1.6% m/m in recreation & education and -1.3% in closing & footwear.
One positive driver was the shelter index but that was due to higher interest rates. Those have since dropped and will put fresh downward pressure on inflation in December.
A January BOC hike was already very unlikely and this kills the idea.
