Canada employment report for December 2019
- Net change in employment 35.2 K versus 25.0 K estimate
- Prior month -71.2K no revision
- Full-time employment change 38.4 K versus -38.4 K last month
- Part-time employment change -3.2 K versus -32.8 K last month
- Unemployment rate 5.6% versus 5.8% estimate. Last month 5.9%
- Hourly wage rate permanent employees YoY 3.8% versus 4.2% estimate. Last month 4.4%
- Participation rate 65.5% versus 65.6% estimate. Last month 65.6%
The report is stronger than expected. The good is
- jobs rebounded part of the declines from last month and above expectations.
- The unemployment rate fell rather sharply to 5.6% from 5.9% last month.
- Ironically the full-time job gain this month was equal to the decline last month (at 38.4K). Full-time jobs are better than part time jobs
The data can be choppy. The gain of 35.2K is nearer the high of the 3 month average in 2019 (the peak was around 50K).
The USDCAD has moved lower off the combination of better Canada and modestly worse US, but it is not running.
Technically, the pair moved lower and tested the 50% retracement level at 1.3030 and bounced. The pair also has strong support against the 100 hour and 200 hour MAs at 1.3011 to 1.30171 area (see yellow area) on more weakness.
