The Canadian labour market report for June is due at 1230GMT on Friday 6 July 2018
- At the same time is trade data for May
Preview via Bank of Montreal
Employment is expected to rise 15,000 in June, following back-to-back monthly declines, the first since late 2014. Job gains have lost momentum in recent months, and we'll be watching to see if that trend continues or turns a bit more positive again.
- The goods sector saw sizeable job losses in May, and some bounce back in construction and manufacturing wouldn't be a surprise.
- Services employment has been volatile as well.
- Health care recorded its biggest drop in five years, while other sectors were mixed.
The oscillation between part-time and full-time jobs is expected to continue with the latter set to turn positive in June.
- Meantime, the jobless rate should hold steady at 5.8%, the lowest in over 40 years, though there's some upside risk if the labour force jumps.
- Wage growth rocketed to a nine-year high of 3.9% in May, but we look for a modest pullback to 3.8% as gains were solid in June 2017.
- Note that June jobs have beaten expectations for seven of the past nine years, suggesting there could be upside to our call.
Canada's trade deficit is expected to be little changed at $1.9 bln in May, consolidating the prior month's huge improvement.
- After a streak of soft trade reports, April was much more favourable, providing a solid start to Q2.
- That left trade on track to add to Q2 GDP growth; we'll see if that is still the case after the May report.
- Oil prices continued their ascent in the month, averaging their best level since late 2014, while other commodity prices firmed as well
