Canadian economic growth data for July is due at 1230GMT
A couple of CAD bank previews
RBC:
- We are forecasting a second consecutive flat reading for the monthly GDP series in July.
- The principal reason is a 0.3pp detraction from non-conventional oil (oil sands) due to a sizable shutdown in the month. Expected offsets come in the form of manufacturing (monthly report pointing to a 0.8% gain for the category), a 3% gain in home re-sales and hotter weather in the month.
- The forecast incorporates about flat readings for retail and wholesale volumes - released September 21st & 24th, respectively - with some potential for revision if there are material deviations from these.
- Our monitoring for Q3 shows a slowdown to 1.6% annualized (from 2.9% in Q2), though this is due to the aforementioned shutdown that extended, in part, through much of the quarter.
- Q4 is slated for a pick-up to 2.6% as activity returns, leaving H2 averaging slightly above potential growth at about 2.0%.
TD:
- Shutdowns in the energy sector to drive a modest decline in real GDP for July, taking some shine off an otherwise decent report.
- While we see scope for a dovish response from markets, we do not think a negative print will affect the BoC hike in October given the transitory nature of the pullback and its muted expectations for Q3 growth.
- TD expect -0.1% m/m (compared with market consensus at +0.1%
