Canada budget due Tuesday - what to expect
A preview of the Canada federal budget (due 2100 GMT 27 February 2018 ) via RBC (bolding mine):
- No new direction likely in budget: fiscal/monetary policy still accommodative
- newspaper reports suggesting that there is unlikely to be any major new tax initiatives
- but a potential focus on pay equity in the government sector, some possible re-training initiatives and some trimming of tax expenditures to cover any increased costs associated with these programs
- The Liberal government remains committed to an eventual reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio, but has fallen short of promising a return to balanced budgets - despite the fact that the economy is operating close to potential.
- Solid growth in 2017 has likely trimmed the current fiscal-year deficit ending in March 2018, below the $19.9 billion target in last year's Fall Economic Statement and perhaps even under the FY2016/17 deficit of $17.8 billion.
- ... gross bond issuance expected to dip temporarily in the upcoming fiscal year to a range of ~C$120bn.
- One can argue that fiscal policy (at least at the federal level) remains mildly stimulative, with lagged infrastructure spending expected to support growth this year and continued deficits with the economy running at potential and the nation's unemployment rate near historical lows pointing to a cyclical boost.
- Monetary policy is also still accommodative, but has tightened over the past year with 75bp of overnight rate increases. Nevertheless, the current overnight target (1.25%) is still well below the BoC's presumed neutral range of 2.5% to 3.5% and ... recent wage and price inflation data point to continued normalization of policy over the next year.
- Markets have just over two hikes priced in over the remainder of this year (versus three in our own forecast) and the pace may be dictated in part by trade developments, with the latest round of NAFTA re-negotiations underway in Mexico this week (a source of headline risks).
- There are no BoC speakers ahead of the next rate meeting (March 7th), but an economic update speech scheduled the day after the meeting (by Deputy Governor Lane) and subsequent speeches scheduled on the 13th (Governor Poloz) and 22nd (Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins) may give some clues on the expected pace of tightening.
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