Attack in Berlin Christmas market hits at her weak point
Angela's Merkel's brand is immigration. She's the queen of Europe and, more than anyone, she represents the epoch of open trade and open borders.
After Brexit, Trump and Renzi, it's clear that the tide has turned. What may be astonishing is how quick the change takes place. What started as a Brexit-surprise has quickly turned to the status quo.
What's incredible is that Germans would turn on her. The Eurozone and open-borders policy has been astonishingly beneficial for Germany at the expense of its periphery neighbours. You would expect Spain, Italy or Greece to install a populist leader. Yet polls show Merkel's popularity is at a five-year low.
She faces a federal election in 2017. The date hasn't been set yet but it will be somewhere between Aug 27 and Oct 22. She's already announced that she will run as the leader of the Christian Democrats.
An earlier test will be a May vote in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state.
It's not the economy
The answer to her woes isn't economic; it's social. Germany has been a remarkably open country for the past 25 years but Germans are nearing a breaking point. Last year's widespread stories of sexual assault at New Years and the government cover up put Merkel on the wrong side of the electorate. If yesterday's attack proves to be terrorism, that may turn Germans against the enormous amounts of refugees and immigrants it's been taking.
If the sentiment shifts, it's tough to see how Merkel can survive. It would take a drastic reinvention but at this point, her brand is set in stone.
To be sure, Merkel is still the prohibitive favourite to win the election. But so was Hillary Clinton at this time last year. Her party's popularity is sagging just as the anti-immigration AfD gains. Yesterday, Marcus Pretzell, the AfD chief in North Rhine-Westphalia, wrote on Twitter yesterday about the 12 people killed in the Christmas market attack: "these are Merkel's dead!"
