The list of known risks is high
A quote from Michael Osterholm, the director of the US Center for Infectious Disease Research, on Meet the Press on the weekend struck me.
"The next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic. Vaccines will not become available in any meaningful way until early to third quarter of next year."
I don't know how much of that it a consensus call yet. There is still plenty of optimism about Q4 and Q1 of next year and an ongoing recovery. Obviously, a lot of that hinges on US stimulus but more money isn't going to change the path of the virus and the collective consumer mood around a massive third wave in the aftermath of an election that will leave half the country disappointment is a hard read.
Let's assume its bad.
Then the next question is whether the market can see past it. So far, you would have to lean towards 'yes'. More pain just means more easy money from the Fed and the federal government. I tend to think we would already be seeing that worry spill over into markets.
The other argument is that markets may be overly focused on the election and missing how much of a drag this could be and how risks around commercial bankruptcies are spiraling.
