BOE sees Brexit dampening capex, hiring and turnover

BOE Agents Summary update now published 10 Aug

This update covers views gathered from business contacts by BOE Agents across the UK between late June 2016 and late July 2016. It generally compares activity and prices over the past three months with a year earlier.

  • A survey of companies indicated the result of the EU referendum would have a negative effect, overall, on capital spending, hiring and turnover over the coming year (see box on page 2, previously published in the August Inflation Report). Consistent with those results, Agents' scores for employment and investment intentions had weakened in absolute terms, pointing to expectations of little change in staff numbers and capital spending over the coming six to twelve months.
  • Business services growth had softened further, partly reflecting weakness in commercial property investment and corporate transactions. Consumer spending growth had also slowed, although that appeared to have partly reflected the effects of unusually wet weather. A decline in manufacturing export volumes had been arrested, aided by the depreciation of sterling.

No great surprises and GBP unfazed with GBPUSD 1.3043 after finding demand/support into 1.3020 earlier. EURGBP 0.8547 still underpinned but finding decent supply around 0.8560 still.

Full report here

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