Reuters with their monthly economists' poll - 8 March 2018
- 36/63 economists says BOE will raise rates in May
- 27/63 sees the BOE on hold in May meeting
- Following May meeting, most economists say no further hike until Q2 2019
- Forecasts a 20% chance of a disorderly Brexit
- Growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 seen at 1.5%
- Inflation forecast for 2018 and 2019 seen at 2.5% and 2.1% respectively
It's almost a split decision, as the general consensus is that the market remains a little uncertain if the BOE is to raise rates in May. But the overall view is that the BOE will surely raise rates at least once this year, and then stay pat until the second half of next year.
The expectation is a bit different from the BOE's message to the market in saying that there will be a "faster pace of rate hikes".
For the May meeting though, the OIS market is pricing in a 73% chance of a rate hike - which is higher than when the BOE shifted to a slightly more hawkish stance back in its February meeting here.
