–UK BCC: Q1 Manufacturing Home Orders Balance +11% Vs +19% Q4
–UK BCC: Q1 Manufacturing Home Sales +8% Vs +23% Q4
–UK BCC: Q1 Manufacturing Export Sales +30% Vs +37% Q4
–UK BCC: Q1 Services Home Sales +6% Vs +5% In Q4
–UK BCC: Q1 Services Home Orders +5% Vs -7% In Q4
LONDON (MNI) – Manufacturing growth eased in the first quarter
while services activity accelerated only slightly, the British Chambers
of Commerce’s latest Economic Survey showed, with the BCC saying the
results were disappointing.
The BCC survey showed first quarter export sales growth decelerated
in both manufacturing and services, while on the domestic front
manufacturing sales growth slowed and services growth nudged up.
The Q1 domestic services sales balance rose to 6 in Q1 from 5 in
Q4, while the domestic services orders balance rose to 5 from -7, both
hitting their highest levels since Q2 2010. On the other hand,
manufacturing’s domestic sales balance fell to 8 from 23 and its
domestic orders balance dropped to 11 from 19.
There was more pronounced growth in services export orders, with
that balance rising to 16 from 12, hitting its highest level since Q1
2007.
There is no simple read across from the BCC balances to the
official GDP data. The Q4 BCC survey had positive headline balances for
most categories but the official Q4 GDP data showed a 0.5% contraction
on the quarter.
The BCC survey showed manufacturers on balance were less confident
about the future than they had been, while service sector respondents
were more confident. The manufacturing confidence turnover balance fell
to 28 from 48 in Q4, its lowest level since Q2 2009, while the services
confidence turnover balance rose to 31 from 26 in Q4.
David Kern, chief economist at the BCC, said the “results highlight
the fragility of the UK economy in the early months of 2011, following
the increase in VAT and the first wave of the government’s tough
spending cuts. The results are mediocre and disappointing, particularly
for manufacturing.”
Kern said the Q1 growth “is likely to have been only slightly
larger than the decline in Q4 2010″ and restated his call for the Bank
of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to avoid a rate hike.
Many analysts believe the Q1 GDP outturn, which will be known ahead
of the MPC’s May meeting, will be the key to whether or not the MPC goes
ahead with a hike in Bank Rate.
The BCC survey showed employment growth in services should pick up
in the next 3 months. The services employment balance for the next 3
months stood at 10, up from 3 in the fourth quarter and up from 4 for
the past three months.
The manufacturing employment balance for the next 3 months dipped
to 9 in Q1 from 11 in Q4, while the balance for the past 3 months fell
to 15 from 23.
The BCC Q1 survey was based on responses from some 6,000
businesses, employing over 680,000 people, covering the period Feb 21 to
Mar 14.
–London newsroom: 00 44 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$,MT$$$$]