Quarterly survey highlights from Barclays
Barclays asked more than 400 institutional investors the same question: If there is a surprise in global growth in the next 12 months, it will be an: a) upside surprise b) around consensus c) downside surprise.
For the first time in at least four years, more than half thought the risks were to the downside. The big turn in sentiment is around emerging markets and the eurozone. Fed hikes are the prime concern for the developing world.
There is also a major theme in the survey about weakness in eurozone growth.
On FX, the respondents are all about the US dollar. 64% prefer it with AUD in a distant second at 11%.
How do you use a survey like this? In general, I think they work best as contrarian indicators, especially when there is a good basis to be skeptical. On eurozone growth, the outlook really isn't so optimistic that it should have people worried.
Maybe if Trump stokes the trade fears enough on his trip to Europe, it will present a buying opportunity for the euro.