Barclays on the week ahead

Barclays client note, this some of the highlights (bolding mine):

• Respite from the USD downtrend has come alongside expectations of faster near-term Fed rate hikes. This source of USD support. however, may be exhausted in the near-term without further upward surprises from upcoming data releases.
• EM and risk assets have been adversely affected by higher risk prernia in core rates
• USD has outperformed EM and risk-sensitive G10 currencies. it has underperformed reserve currencies.
• Concerns about global trade might add to negative risk sentiment.
• Trade protectionism brings renewed risks to the global outlook.
• Although EM Asia stands out as being especially exposed to broad trade protectionism. initial moves towards sector-specific tariffs may actually encourage greater tolerance for FX appreciation.
• The EUR focus shifts from political risks to the ECB meeting. ... we believe the April meeting is more likely to see a change in language.
• We expect no change in policy from the Bol. RBA. BoC. CBT or NBP.
• Trades for the week ahead: Long TRYZAR as positive news has been priced in already in ZAR and short USDCNH as expectations of constitutional change support stability.