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Despite the USD's good performance this year, solid US data and the Fed turning more hawkish recently, the strong consensus remains against the USD.
Looking at the distribution of the consensus forecasts in Bloomberg in the Chart of the Day, we have been the most bearish on EURUSD and the only one with a forecast as low as 1.15, even today
The market has also been wrong about the Fed this year and is now ignoring the ECB Strategy Review. Another weak summer tourist season is also a risk for the EUR. If US inflation continues surprising to the upside, the USD could even appreciate across the board
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