The data is here, a big beat: Australia - September trade balance: AUD surplus 1.745bn (expected surplus AUD 1.2bn)
Via Westpac analysis:
Australia's trade surplus ... surprising to the high side
- rise in export exceeded expectations
- Imports were little changed in the month
- Metal ores rose 8.0% ... on higher volumes
- gold rebounded
- services continue their strong upward trend (12.4% above the level of a year ago, to meet rising demand from the Asian region)
For the September quarter
- statistician advises that on a quarterly balance of payments basis, the surplus did indeed improve, increasing to $3.5bn from $3.1bn, an increase of $345mn
- widening of the surplus was despite a small decline in the terms of trade, associated with lower commodity prices
- export volumes recovered further after the weather disrupted decline in Q1
- import volumes are expanding to meet rising domestic demand
- This implies that real net exports will make a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter, most likely broadly in line with our forecast of plus 0.3ppts.
