I posted this already: Australian trade balance data due today - preview of the big surplus!
More now:
National Australia Bank
- NAB's forecast is that the surplus rose to $A1.6bn, up from $A1.0bn in August. As far as the bulk commodities are concerned, use of port shipments and price data and mapping these to ABS estimates points to a flattish read for iron ore exports, higher volumes offset be the pull-back in iron ore prices. Coal in contrast is expected to rise a large 12.9% (+0.6bn). Reporting also suggests that the ramp up in production from the new Gladstone LNG plants continued in September.
TD Securities:
- Chinese imports from Australia were strong in Jul/Aug, which is encouraging for exports, but exports to Australia also jumped, hence we look for a smaller surplus as a jump in imports mitigates any good news from exports.
