The Labour Force Survey from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is out Thursday 16 August 2018, due at 0130GMT
Survey says ...
- Employment Change: K expected 15K, prior 50.9K (a cracking result indeed)
- Unemployment Rate: % expected 5.4%, prior 5.4%
- Full Time Employment Change: K prior was 41.2K
- Part Time Employment Change: K prior was 9.7K
- Participation Rate: % expected 65.7%, prior was 65.7%
Earlier:
This now via Westpac (bolding mine … WPAC way under consensus):
- Employment in the business surveys softened in the last few months, something we are watching closely. Of note the June survey was associated with a strong rise in employment & participation. The ABS notes that in July, the outgoing rotation group has higher employment and participation ratios than the average for the whole sample. If the incoming sample is more like the average, then it will drive both a softer employment and participation print hence we see the risk for a negative print. Our -5k forecast will see the three month average fall to 19.8k.
- We suspect some of the rise in both employment and the labour force in the June survey was due to the sample rolling in having a much higher attachment to the labour force. If the sample rolling in July is more like the sample average then we will see not only a softer employment print but also softer participation.
- This is why, despite our forecast -5k for employment, we see the unemployment rate flat at 5.4%
