The data gives an indication to the state of the housing market and financing in Australia, which has been squeezed just a little lately,
- House prices drifting a little lower has taken some of the enthusiasm out of the market
- Slightly tighter liquidity (funding issues) another negative input
Anyway, coming up at 0130GMT Australian housing finance for May
- Home loans m/m, expected -2.0%, prior was -1.4%
- Investment lending m/m, prior was -0.9%
- Owner-occupied loan value m/m, prior was +0.2%
This preview via ANZ:
- We believe the number of housing finance commitments fell further in May. The number of monthly approvals is already down 7% over the last five months, and further declines are likely given the weakness in other housing market indicators in the month, such as falling auction results and prices.
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Preview via NAB:
Housing finance continues to be interesting for market watchers, and whether a material tightening in credit conditions emerges remains a point of debate.
Owner-occupier home loan approvals have been declining since late 2017, alongside the slowing housing market. The trend is clearly downward, although the pace of decline has been moderate- we expect this to continue in May.
Beyond the headline number of home loan approvals, we will be interested in watching the more finance-sensitive value of investor loans, and the share of first home buyers. It is worth noting that, while tightening credit conditions have received a lot of attention, there have also been a number of discounts offered to first home buyers. These discounts, and a softening housing market, have enabled the share of first home buyers to rise over the past year.
These data will be watched in the context of the weaker-than-expected building approvals data … and … speech by RBA Head of Economic Analysis Alex Heath on housing. Heath made it clear that the Bank and markets will continue to watch housing data closely, although it remains confident the housing market will slow at a measured pace.
