Due on Thursday 14 November 2019 at 0030GMT
- Employment Change: K expected 15K, prior 14.7K
- Unemployment Rate: % expected 5.2%, prior 5.2%
- Full Time Employment Change: K prior was 26.2K
- Part Time Employment Change: K prior was -11.4K
- Participation Rate: % expected 66.1%, prior was 66.1%
Preview posted yesterday:
The Reserve Bank of Australia want unemployment lower (said to be targeting 4.5% … good luck with that) and as such markets too are focused on the jobless rate.
Here are Westpac's thoughts on the u/e figure today:
- The most notable update in the September Labour Force survey was that the unemployment rate declined from 5.3% to 5.2%, against consensus expectations for a steady read. That comes from a moderate 14.7k rise in employment but a retracement in the participation rate from 66.2% to 66.1%.
- Note that in August, the unemployment rate was 5.25% at two decimal places and is 5.20% in September. The modest 0.05ppt movement is not uncommon given the volatility in the Labour Force survey.
- We think September's modest decline in the unemployment rate will be temporary
A worsening rate will see AUD under pressure (due to expectations the RBA will be kept on an easing bias).
