A preview for July - September 2018 construction data due today from Australia
- at 0030GMT
Its expected to show a slowing from the Q2 result:
- expected +0.9% q/q, Q2 was +1.6% y/y
Earlier preview here: Australian data due - guide to health of building sector
This now via Westpac, firstly with a recap of Q2:
- Construction work grew by a robust 1.6% in Q2. Gains were evident across public works, new home building and commercial building. There was a modest decline in private engineering activity, as well as a dip in home renovations.
Then, for today:
- For the September quarter, we anticipate a more modest lift in construction work, up a forecast 0.6%.
- Notably, new home building activity is expected to consolidate after a brisk 4.1% rise in Q2. Approvals have retreated although a sizeable work pipeline remains. • Public works is a source of growth, +2.5% in Q2 and up a forecast 3% in Q3, with a focus on transport infrastructure.
- Elsewhere conditions are likely to be mixed, with the risk of a small decline in private engineering and a modest gain in commercial building work.
And, via National Australia Bank, they expect an above consensus result:
- above-market forecast of 2% q/q
- NAB expects that the combination of a large dwelling construction pipeline and a very dry September quarter likely resulted in construction work lifting by 2.4% q/q, after two strong quarters of above 3% growth.
- Non-residential construction work is also expected to have picked up, rising 2% q/q.
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AUD impact from this release will likely be muted. As a guide, a miss is a negative for the currency and a beat a positive. Most market focus, though, ifs on other factors (commodity prices (iron ore) and US/China trade developments)
