Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment for October in at 105, popping back to net optimism and a 27 month high.
- prior +18% m/m to 93.8
- first optimistic result since June 2019
Some of the sub measures are worth posting (all are m/m changes):
- outlook for the economy over the next 12 months +24.2%
- index for the next five years +14.1%
- measure of whether consumers felt it was a good time to buy a major household item +8.2%
September was a big bounce back from the very weak reading in August at 79.5 and the bounce continued in October. the weekly data had been pointing this way also.
From the WPAC commentary:
- "This is an extraordinary result"
- "Such a development must be attributable to the response to the October Federal Budget; ongoing success across the nation in containing the COVID-19 outbreak; and the expectation that the Reserve Bank Board is likely to further cut interest rates at its next meeting on November 3."
---
I'm with WPAC on the 'extraordinary' adjective. I very much hope this is indicative of where to economy is going but I have doubts. I hate to be a bear with a sore head but after an initial bounce I see a long hard road ahead for the economy. I shall be very happy to be wrong on this.
