Coming up at 0130 GMT on Thursday 22 April 2020
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is releasing 'preliminary' data for a number of economic indicators during this crisis, to help get a picture of how the economy is responding in a more timely fashion.
Today we get prelim results for March retail sales.
These are likely to show a positive due to stockpiling by consumers when fear took hold.
Via ANZ:
- looking for 4% m/m
- represents unique stockpiling behaviour during the transition to lockdown conditions
- Sharp downturns in retail expenditure will follow the March spike
- we detected three distinct phases of household spending in response to lockdown conditions
- first phase was grocery, pharmaceutical and toiletries spending at the peak of phase 1 (week ending 20 March)
- second phase was a broader preparation … demand for recreation goods, home exercise equipment, work-from-home setups and purchases relating to home improvement projects … peak of this phase (week ending 27 March)
- A sharp decline in social retail spending (fashion, dining/takeaway) occurred across these phases and reached a floor at the end of March
- Retail expenditure in April is likely to reveal the beginnings of the third phase of lockdown ... It's likely that from here an underlying weakness in household spending will emerge.
