Australia January trade balance data due today, 2018 exports off for a good start?

'Net exports' were a detraction from Q4 2017 GDP we got yesterday from Australia. Will the January trade data today indicate a better start for the new year?

Data is due at 0030 GMT, a tiny surplus is expected

• expected AUD +160m,
• prior AUD -1358m (i.e deficit)

Previews, via ...

ANZ:

• 

  We expect Australia's trade balance to have worsened to AUD1,500m in January. Underlying this is a one-off fall in mining exports. Coal exports from Gladstone port were disrupted temporarily in the month by a train derailment. Iron ore shipments from Port Headland were also disrupted by Cyclone Joyce.

CBA:

• We are forecasting a $600m trade surplus in January after a $1358m deficit last month. A solid lift in commodity prices in the month should boost export values. While imports are expected to cool after a 6% rise last month.

Westpac:

• In December, Australia's trade balance slumped to a deficit of $1.4bn, deteriorating from a $36mn surplus in November. Imports spiked 6.0% (+$1.9bn) in the month, suggesting an abnormal clustering of shipments ahead of the new year. For January, we expect a sharp reversal to a $0.6bn surplus. We highlight the uncertainty around trade forecasts, particularly in cases such as this, when the view is centred on a judgement on imports. The import bill is expected to decline by $1.9bn (-5.5%), fully unwinding December's spike. Contributing to the January reversal are lower prices owing to the rise in the currency, up 2% on a TWI basis and 4% higher against the US dollar. Export earnings are forecast to edge higher, up 0.2%, $0.1bn. A rise in iron ore exports, on higher prices and volumes, is expected to be largely offset by a moderation in coal.