A preview of the Private Sector Credit for January due today at 0030 GMT
This is usually not an immediate forex mover, but something to be aware of nonetheless, both as good info on the economy (credit growth) and, well, given the AUD movements (soft, driven bigly by USD developments admittedly) you never know, right?
Via NAB:
- The market and NAB are expecting 0.4% m/m (5% y/y) growth, as business credit bounces back from a brief decline. A lift in business credit would be another sign, alongside positive business sentiment and bumper profit reports, that business conditions are gaining momentum
Via Westpac:
Credit to the private sector is expanding at a modest pace as the housing sector cools. In 2017, credit increased by 4.8%, with a Q4 average of 0.4% per month.
- For January, we anticipate a rise of 0.4%.
Housing credit, at this late stage of the cycle, is slowing in response to tighter lending conditions. The 3 month annualised pace is 5.5% currently, down from 6.8% in March. In December, housing credit grew by 0.43%, 6.3%yr.
Business credit is volatile month to month around a modest upward trend as businesses expand investment in the real economy. The December result was a slightly below par increase of 0.2%, coming on the heels of a 0.5% rise in November. For January, we anticipate an outcome more in line with the recent average of 0.3%.
(bolding above is mine)
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ps. On the data later this week, Q4 capex is due Thursday ... a focus
