What to expect for the building approvals due at 0030GMT
In brief, via
Westpac:
- there is a risk of a technical bounce following two big negatives, we expect the Jan update to reflect the 'one-way traffic' in housing markets evident through late 2018.
- On balance we expect Jan to show a 1% decline.
- As always, risks are compounded by the very low activity over the holiday season which means moves can be significantly amplified by seasonal adjustment
ANZ:
- Building approvals fell sharply in November/December, with a cumulative drop of more than 17% over the two months. After a drop of this size we would typically be expecting a decent rebound.
- But this time around we think the shift in credit conditions means a recovery is unlikely. We are looking for a flat result for the month, with the degree of uncertainty around our pick much higher than usual.
NAB:
- expects a small bounce … after two consecutive months of sharp .... declines
