Australia CPI data preview (an early one)

Australian Q1 2017 inflation data is due on Wednesday (11.30am local time)

  • Due at 0130GMT 26 April 2017

The 'headline' result is the q/q CPI for Q1:

  • expected +0.6%
  • prior was +0.5%

For the y/y, expected is 2.2%, prior 1.5%

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For the 'trimmed mean' (which is the measure the RBA pays most heed to, it is the 'core' inflation figure where the RBA target band is 2 - 3%)

For the q/q:

  • expected 0.5%
  • prior 0.4%

For the y/y, expected is 1.8%, prior 1.6%

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Finally, there is the 'weighted median' CPI:

  • For q/q: expected 0.5%, prior was 0.4%
  • For y/y: expected 1.8%, prior was 1.5%

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Preview from Westpac, first their summary of the previous result:

  • The December (i.e. Q4 of 2016) quarter presented a clearly softer inflation profile compared to the more mixed results from the September quarter
  • Early signs of AUD pass-through faded and discounting in the consumer space returned

And, for the Q1 2017 data, Westpac's forecast:

  • 0.6% q/q, lifting the annual pace to 2.3% y/y
  • March is a seasonally softer quarter with the ABS seasonal factors boosting our seasonally adjusted estimate to 0.8% q/q
  • We are forecasting a reversal in fresh fruit & vegetable prices, further declines in clothing & footwear plus household contents & services while housing costs remain contained
  • Offsetting is seasonal jump in pharmaceuticals, the bump in auto fuel prices and signs that the energy crisis is feeding into higher utility bills

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ps. ICYMI Australia and New Zealand are closed for the ANZAC Day holiday today.

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