Australian Q1 2017 inflation data is due on Wednesday (11.30am local time)
- Due at 0130GMT 26 April 2017
The 'headline' result is the q/q CPI for Q1:
- expected +0.6%
- prior was +0.5%
For the y/y, expected is 2.2%, prior 1.5%
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For the 'trimmed mean' (which is the measure the RBA pays most heed to, it is the 'core' inflation figure where the RBA target band is 2 - 3%)
For the q/q:
- expected 0.5%
- prior 0.4%
For the y/y, expected is 1.8%, prior 1.6%
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Finally, there is the 'weighted median' CPI:
- For q/q: expected 0.5%, prior was 0.4%
- For y/y: expected 1.8%, prior was 1.5%
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Preview from Westpac, first their summary of the previous result:
- The December (i.e. Q4 of 2016) quarter presented a clearly softer inflation profile compared to the more mixed results from the September quarter
- Early signs of AUD pass-through faded and discounting in the consumer space returned
And, for the Q1 2017 data, Westpac's forecast:
- 0.6% q/q, lifting the annual pace to 2.3% y/y
- March is a seasonally softer quarter with the ABS seasonal factors boosting our seasonally adjusted estimate to 0.8% q/q
- We are forecasting a reversal in fresh fruit & vegetable prices, further declines in clothing & footwear plus household contents & services while housing costs remain contained
- Offsetting is seasonal jump in pharmaceuticals, the bump in auto fuel prices and signs that the energy crisis is feeding into higher utility bills
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ps. ICYMI Australia and New Zealand are closed for the ANZAC Day holiday today.