ANZ project a contraction for Australian economic growth in the first quarter of this year.
-0.1% q/q is their forecast
Citing the impact of bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak. Coronavirus the bigger negative drag of the two.
ANZ remarks:
- Travel ban in place in Australia on all foreign nationals who have been in China, as well as airline cancellations, will act to sharply reduce the level of tourist arrivals
- while the hit to near-term growth is large, we expect the number of arrivals from China to turn around in Q2
- rebound in tourism adding to growth in Q3 and Q4
- impact on year-end growth is likely to be small
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A reminder on what constitutes a recession:
- two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
That is the widely accepted definition. You will hear folks using other measures, and often moving the goalposts around to suit.
