Like every trader, I have my opinions which are sometimes right and sometimes not! My overall view of the world of currencies is that the big printers (USD, EUR, JPY) will weaken appreciably over time and the commodity currencies and the GBP will strengthen.
These big picture views don’t help us much when trying to make a living from month to month but I always trade better when I have a committed bias.
Over to the AUD/USD. There is very strong medium term technical support now at .9150 and this is an ideal entry level for medium-term bulls. Only a break back below .9000 will change my view. As to whether we get a test of this region or simply trade higher from here? I wish I knew the answer and all I can say is that we need to trade what’s in front of us on a day-to-day basis.
I think the crosses like AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD and GBP/AUD will have a major impact on short-term AUD moves and bear watching closely.
We have the RBA minutes tomorrow (no impact as we have had the Statement of Monetary Policy last week which would have incorporated this) and the HSBC China flash manufacturing PMI on Thursday.
