Admittedly not a pair I look at regularly but I don’t mind going off the reservation now and again.
We’ve been in a down trend for the best part of a year and the bottom of the channel is being tested once again. The pair has held the line throughout May with bounces shallow and contained by the 100 H4 ma. At today’s money the line is at 1.1981.
Looking at the monthly chart the pair has support at the 200 mma. Above, the moves have so far been capped by the 100 mma since it broke below in April.
Trading wise the continued pressure points to a break of the lower trend line but it remains to be seen whether the 200 mma is broken also.
We’ve had a couple of fakeouts but I would personally look to take a small short on another break of 1.1980 with a very tight stop. This may be a trade where you have to risk a few losers before the real break happens.
If the pair gets and hold above the 100H4 ma then the trade focus will switch to the long side.