AUD risk events: Trade balance and Budget

The first rumours are starting to circulate, with talk of a much worse than expected Australian trade balance; the market is expecting a deficit of around AUD1.25bln after -0.5bln last time but there is chatter in the interban market this morning that the number could be closer to -AUD2.5 billion. There are rumours before every major data event so take it with a large pinch of salt.

Later today the Australian Budget will be released and its expected to return to surplus whilst downgrading economic forecasts.

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