Greg had the Australian CPI data yesterday:
- The weaker CPI slowed the AUDNZD a bit. AUDJPY cracking lower.
- Lower CPI send the AUDUSD lower. Tests key swing area.
- Australian CPI for 3Q 0.6% vs. 0.8% estimate. Trimmed mean 0.4% vs 0.5% est.i
This from a HSBC client note overnight:
,,, inflation surprised to the downside in Q3 17.
- The average of the two closely watched underlying measures of inflation came in at 1.85% YoY compared to the 2.0% expected by the market and HSBC's forecast of 2.1%.
So inflation continues to track below the RBA's 2-3% band and it is likely the central bank will want clearer signs that inflation is on the rise before it begins to tighten.
- Our economics team now expects the first hike to come in Q2 18 rather than Q1.
- The market expects the first hike to come in November 2018 according to Bloomberg data.
