Moved from 0.2% in the first half of March
The Atlanta Fed moved to a new tracking high of 2.1% from 1.7% on March 29th. In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on April 1, up from 1.7 percent on March 29. After this morning's data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth inched up from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.3 percent to 5.4 percent, and the nowcast of first-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 2.6 percent to 3.5 percent.
The tracker reached a low around 0.2% in the first half of March. The recovery is quite dramatic.
Earlier today,
- Barclays raised their estimate to 1.8% from 1.7% last
- Goldman Sachs raised their estimate to 1.2% from 0.8% previously.
The Atlanta Fed went from below the concensus to now above the concensus (see chart above).
