Big slide in the latest results
Yikes!
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 2Q GDP growth has moved down sharply to 3.8% from 4.5% on June 27th. The index has moved down from a peak of 4.8% on June 14th.
The Atlanta Fed GDP has been a favorite for the Trump administration because it has been above most estimates. It's estimate runs in contrast to the NY Fed GDPNowcast which was at 2.87% last week. The NY Fed will update their estimate later this morning.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on June 29, down from 4.5 percent on June 27. The nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.7 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Earlier today, Bank of America sliced -0.4% from their 2Q estimate. They moved from 4.0% to 3.6%.
The first cut for the 2Q (today is the end of the quarter) will be released on July 27th. 4% is now looking in the rear view mirror.
