If your attention is wandering from BTC back to the yellow rock, here is some forecasting
This is via RBC:
Baseline is for a measured increase in prices in 2018, with further upside risks
- The most recent weakness was not just seasonal, but also driven at least partially by a continued rally in equities, the Fed rate hike, and weaker than normal physical demand in key regions like India
Going into 2018, we do expect somewhat higher prices; our current annual average forecast for 2018 is $1303/oz, just under $50/oz higher y/y; strength will likely start as early as Q1 given seasonal trends.
Fundamentals in 2018,
- we forecast slightly lower mine supply,
- but with higher scrap supply
- and little change in net producer hedging, the supply profile looks quite stable.
- Demand ... we do forecast some notable changes.
- we forecast higher volumes for the two major physical demand drivers (jewellery and bar and coin demand).
- general stabilization in physical demand
- risks are skewed to the upside given the potential for shifts in long-term price expectations or a potentially significant risk-off event
- The biggest relative fall y/y on the demand side of our balance is net ETP demand, albeit it is still set to remain a net tightener for the balance
We view the 2018 macro-economic backdrop as less gold-negative than in 2017, but due to likely continued economic growth across most major regions, a number of headwinds for gold remain - equities are likely to continue their rally and the rate hikes are set to continue in the US.
These two factors in particular are set to keep a lid on gold's performance despite the gold-positive possibility of renewed geopolitical risks (i.e. North Korea and the Middle East) as well as a potential de-pricing of some gold-negative economic trends. Overall, we expect some measured upside in gold y/y in 2018 and cite upside risks to those forecasts.
