From ANZ's weekly 'FX Strategy' for the week coming up
The bank is looking at the data coming up next week 9bolding mine):
- GDP forecasts for Q2 have already been tweaked higher and upside surprises in this week's partials - construction work done and capex would firm these expectations and add further support to the AUD on crosses.
- But growth alone is not enough to trigger a shift in the RBA bias, just yet. So, we would use this opportunity to sell the rallies.
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Note: Construction work data due Wednesday (Australia time) and capex data due Thursday. I'll have previews on these, to come.
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Also note, in a separate piece from ANZ economists (I posted yesterday, here), they too are wary of AUD .... but ...
- The run-up to 0.8000 looks stretched.
- Continued uncertainty about the USD may hold the AUD up, however
