From ANZ's weekly FX outlook, this on the Australian dollar:
Despite a better environment, the AUD has failed to squeeze higher.
- While we still see this as a risk, it is a relatively low probability, and for now we are relatively neutral.
- The domestic data flow remains positive, but this is well understood by markets and largely priced in.
Importantly, the global environment continue to dominate moves, and on this front we see a number of risk events ahead
- US-China tensions,
- Brexit,
- mid-term elections
that could end up taking a toll on the AUD
(bolding mine)
For the week ahead, ANZ's view is neutral
- For the month ahead they are bearish
