–Ex Defense +0.1%; Civ Aircrft Ordrs -5.8% as Boeing has 152 Orders
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The October durable goods data were stronger
than expected, with little noticeable impact from Hurricane Sandy,
suggesting the end-of-year pullback on fiscal cliff uncertainty will
remain relatively minor.
October durables orders were flat but printed +1.5% excluding
transportation (a second gain) and +0.1% ex-defense. Economists in the
late MNI poll had expected overall orders to decline 0.8%.
There were no reports of the hurricane hurting production, the
Commerce Department said, and officials also said they cannot isolate
the weather’s effects on orders since companies report orders on a
national basis.
Boeing Corp. reported separately 152 new airplane orders after 143
in September, but civilian aircraft & parts printed -5.8% as lower
priced aircraft were put in the pipeline. Unadjusted aircraft orders
were more than $3 billion lower during the month, and the seasonal
adjustment actually added to the total.
October could be simply showing the Month-1 of the quarter effect
where orders dip, then rebound in subsequent months. Some analysts
attribute this to too-severe adjustment at the start of each period.
Orders tend to seesaw monthly, but put in an uptrend over time.
Total orders are now up in five of the last six months, and October
data showed good gains in most areas. October’s primary metals orders
posted +1.7%, machinery +2.9%, computers +0.9%, and electronics +4.1%.
Transportation equipment orders at -3.1% had its worst showing
since August. In addition to the dip in aircraft, there was a 1.6%
decline in motor vehicles and parts.
Nondefense capital goods shipments posted -0.5%, suggesting lower
capital spending in the Q4 GDP accounts. Nondefense capital goods orders
ex aircraft posted +1.7%, their biggest gain since May.
Overall shipments fell 0.6% and inventories printed +0.4%, but
overall this report was stronger than expected.
**MNI Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**
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