Flash Jun HICP: -0.2% m/m, +2.0% y/y
MNI median forecast: -0.1% m/m, +2.1% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.2% to +0.2% m/m
Final May HICP: -0.2% m/m, +2.2% y/y
————–
Flash Jun CPI: -0.1% m/m, +1.7% y/y
MNI median forecast: flat m/m, +1.8% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.2% to +0.1% m/m
Final May CPI: -0.2% m/m, +1.9% y/y
————–
BERLIN (MNI) – German consumer prices in June fell 0.1% in national
terms and 0.2% in EU-harmonized terms, which trimmed annual rates by 0.2
point to +1.7% for CPI, its lowest since December 2010, and to +2.0% for
HICP, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) estimated Wednesday.
The median forecasts for monthly inflation in an MNI survey of
analysts were for a flat reading of CPI and a 0.1% drop of HICP.
As usual, the Federal Statistics Office provided few details on
price developments with the flash release, though it did link the
renewed slowdown in inflation to recent oil price developments,
underlining the fall in heating oil and motor fuel prices.
Some analysts expect inflation in Germany to pick up over the
medium term due to solid domestic demand, low unemployment, elevated
wage hikes and the accommodative monetary policy of the ECB.
The Bundesbank recently signaled that domestic inflation could
exceed the Eurozone average for some time given the growth divergences
among countries.
The central bank last week confirmed its inflation forecasts of
2.1% for 2012 and 1.6% for 2011. It warned of upward risks stemming from
higher than expected oil prices, a further decline of the euro and
possible moderate second-round effects following wage agreements in the
first half of 2012.
The Finance Ministry said last week that the moderate increase of
labor unit costs and stronger wage hikes this year “are currently no
inflation risk.”
ECB President Mario Draghi said earlier this month that “inflation
expectations remain well anchored and there’s no inflation risk in any
euro area country.”
Producer price inflation in Germany continued to slow in May,
falling to its lowest level in almost two years and adding to evidence
that pipeline pressures are easing.
For detailed information see data table on MNI MainWire.
–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$]