Analysis: EMU PPI Higher Than Generally Expected In November

Industry producer prices excluding construction:

November: +0.3% m/m, +4.5% y/y

MNI survey median: +0.1% m/m, +4.4% y/y
MNI survey range: +0.1% to +0.3% m/m

October: +0.4% m/m, +4.4% y/y
September: +0.3% m/m, +4.3% y/y
August: +0.1% m/m, +3.6% y/y
July: +0.2% m/m, +4.0% y/y
June: +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Producer prices in the Eurozone rose faster than
generally expected in November, boosted by all major components except
capital goods, Eurostat reported on Wednesday.

The 0.3% gain between October and November extended the number of
consecutive monthly increases to 13 and widened the annual rise to 4.5%,
its highest level since October 2008.

The monthly energy price increase accelerated to 0.9%, for an 8.8%
rise on the year, despite the slowdown in Brent crude prices in
November.

Filtering out the effects of energy, core PPI rose 0.1% on the
month and 3.0% on the year.

With oil prices rising steadily since early December, energy is
most likely to continue fueling overall PPI growth in the near term.

Price gains in other commodities, including cereals, copper and
iron, are passing through the production chain and, in the case of
foods, have already showed up in shopping carts, prompting at least one
major central bank recently to tighten monetary policy.

Manufacturers polled for the December purchasing managers index
(PMI) highlighted the strong impact of costlier energy, steel, plastic
and textile prices, which lifted input price inflation to its highest
level in over four years (74.1).

As firms tried to pass on higher costs to clients, output prices
rose at their fastest pace (55.8) since August 2008, while still
trailing input costs, the PMI report added.

Intermediate goods production prices, the first to reflect trends
in commodity costs, increased 0.2% compared to October, widening the
annual increase to 5.8%.

Durable consumer goods output prices rose 0.2% on the month to give
an annual gain of 1.4%. Non-durables also increased 0.2%, for a 1.5%
annual gain.

Bucking the trend, capital goods output prices fell back 0.1%
between October and November, leaving the annual increase stable at
0.8%.

Among the larger Eurozone economies, both France and Italy saw
producer prices rise 0.4% on the month, which resulted in annual gains
of 4.4% and 4.1%, respectively. Spanish PPI was up 0.3% on the month,
boosting annual rise to 4.4%. German PPI was 0.2% higher than in
October, which lifted the annual rise to 4.3%.

Outside the big-four states, Cyprus was the only Eurozone member to
see a monthly decline at -0.7%. Ireland and Greece both saw the
strongest monthly jump in PPI at 1.3%.

— Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; e-mail: frankfurt@marketnews.com —

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MT$$$$,M$XDS$]

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