Seasonally adjusted results:
March preliminary: +E4.3 billion
MNI survey median: +E4.7 billion
MNI survey range: +E1.8 bln to +E6.2 bln
February revision: +E4.0 bln (+E3.7 bln)
January revision: +E5.4 bln (+E5.3 bln)
December revision: +E7.0 bln (+E7.1 bln)
November revision: +E5.0 bln (+E4.5 bln)
October revision: +E0.1 bln (+E0.2 bln)
Non-seasonally adjusted results:
March preliminary: +E8.6 billion
February revision: +E2.3 bln (+E2.8 bln)
January revision: -E8.3 bln (-E7.9 bln)
December revision: +E9.0 bln (+E8.4 bln)
November revision: +E5.5 bln (+E5.6 bln)
October revision: -E0.1 bln ( E0.0 bln)
—
PARIS (MNI) – Eurozone exports and imports both contracted in March
in seasonally adjusted terms after solid increases since the start of
the year, leaving the trade surplus somewhat lower than generally
expected at E4.3 billion, according to preliminary estimates released
Wednesday by Eurostat.
Exports fell 0.9% on the month after +2.2% in February and +1.4% in
January. Imports were down 1.1% following a recovery of 3.2% and 2.5%.
The adjusted merchandise goods trade surplus widened in 1Q to E13.7
billion from E12.1 billion in 4Q, suggesting a positive contribution to
GDP.
In unadjusted terms, the trade balance jumped to a three-month high
of E8.6 billion. Exports surged 10.1% on the month and were 4% higher on
the year. Imports expanded 6.0% on the month and were little changed
from the previous-year level. The 1Q trade surplus amounted to E2.6
billion compared to a deficit of E18.0 billion a year earlier, with
exports up 9% on the year and imports up 3%.
Unadjusted data for January-February show the Eurozone’s energy
imports up 18% on the year, boosting the two-month energy deficit to E60
billion. Raw material imports were 4% lower on the year for a trade
shortfall of E5.8 billion. Manufactured goods exports were 9% higher on
the year for a surplus of E54.6 billion. Exports to China rose 15% on
the year, while imports grew by only 3%.
The Eurozone benefited from fairly dynamic global trade last year
to boost exports, while subdued domestic demand limited import growth.
Exports outpaced imports through 3Q and fell less steeply than imports
in 4Q as global demand faltered, thanks to domestic de-stocking. As a
result, foreign trade contributed 0.3 point to GDP growth in each
quarter, offsetting much of the weakness in investment and consumption.
The factory PMIs show export orders contracting since last July,
with an accelerating decline from February to April (46.3).
Manufacturers’ assessment of export order books eroded markedly in April
while remaining above the long-term average, and expected export volumes
were cut back sharply, the European Commission’s surveys show.
The IMF expects global trade to expand by only 3.8% this year after
+6.9% in 2011. While demand from emerging economies would remain fairly
robust (+7.1% after +11.3%), external demand in advanced economies would
be even more sluggish (+2.0% after +4.8%), dampening the pace of export
growth in advanced countries (+2.4% after +5.5%).
On the import side, prospects for a contraction in Eurozone
activity in 2Q and only a timid recovery in the second half suggest that
import demand will remain subdued as well. While little relief from
costly oil is likely as long as tensions over Iran persist and the euro
remains weak, prices for other commodities could be dampened by slowing
global demand. The IMF has forecast a 14% decline in non-oil commodity
costs this year.
With global trade losing steam, the Commission expects Eurozone
export growth to slow to 0.9% this year from 2.5% last year. With
imports rising only 0.2% after +1.5%, foreign trade would add 0.8 point
to full-year GDP growth after a full-point contribution last year.
–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@marketnews.com
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