The market is so beared-up on the payroll data it can hardly see straight. Risk is, as the fancy-pants analysts like to say “asymmetric” today.
Our friendly neighborhood economists forecast a 110,000 drop in non-farm payrolls and a 112,000 rise in private sector employment. Even “as expected” data is probably a “win” in present environment.
We have to assume good news for the US is good news for the dollar today. That said, the price action to the topside has been so strong one wonders whether EUR/USD is data-dependent at the moment.
We may have one of those situations where EUR/USD goes up no matter what…so if you have a view on the economy, play in another pair, like USD/JPY. Decent data should see a bounce in USD/JPY toward solid 88.20/30 offers.
