The NFP analysis is rolling out from the market players
It matters not what I think about the NFP, outside of my own trading. The big boys are the ones that move the markets and their analysts help by passing their views on the data
At the moment is all coming up September for a lot of them
Here's a few so far;
- Mitsubishi - +215k jobs means Sept Fed liftoff. Wage data could
be the spoiler in some months but July AHE "+0.2% to a year-on-year rate of 2.1%
is no spoiler - BBH - The employment data meets Fed criteria for rate hike.
"Average weekly hours rose to 34.6 hours from 34.5. It does not seem like much,
but given the number of workers, an extra six minutes a week turns into a lot of
full time equivalents. This speaks to output more than employment." - HFE - employ data were strong enough, "the trend in employment
growth remains more than strong enough to keep the unemployment rate trending
down." Calls for Sept Fed move. - Capital Econ says the employ data were solid
rather than spectacular - RBS - Jul NFP +215k and upward revisions of just 14k with AHE
up 0.2% "is another solid report that, in our view, meets the criteria for "some
further improvement" in labor market conditions and thus will keep the Fed in
play in September. The numbers are not strong enough to end the debate, but we
remain comfortable with our view that they will take action at that time." - UBS agrees this was enough to keep Fed in play
That's a snapshot of the views so far, courtesy of MNI
If September is pushed back, could we be in "The Hunt for Fed October"?
Ok, I'll get my coat ;-)