Before I head away here’s a few thoughts put together earlier by MNI
It is virtually impossible for National Statistics to seasonally adjust data at this time of year, in part due to changes in discounting patterns year-to-year, and the December numbers will need to be viewed alongside January’s to give a fuller picture of spending over the Christmas and New Year period.
The BRC/KPMG December retail sales monitor shows sales growth slipped to 1.8% in on the year in December, which was the lowest level since December last year, with the exception of April 2013 when sales were weak due to a trading day lost to Easter compared to April 2012.
The data raise questions as to whether household consumption will be able to provide as much of a boost to Q4 GDP as it did in Q3 when it contributed 0.5 percentage points to overall quarterly growth of 0.8%. Analysts are looking for UK Dec total retail sales to fall 0.7% on month and rise 1.8% on year.
I concur, so in essence I’m not looking for a good figure but it might not fully present the lame Xmas spending for retailers that we’ve been hearing about. I remain a seller of GBP rallies.
As always, trade what you see and what you feel.
UK RETAIL SALES est