ING on headwinds ahead of the Australian dollar for the balance of the first half of the year:
1. "Iron ore may show fresh signs of weakness, which suggests AUD's balance of risks may be tilted to the downside in the short-term"
- improving supply situation in 2021 should see prices trend lower
2. RBA's extension to its QE program should keep rates low and further dampen the attractiveness
ING like CAD and NZD better
- unlikely to see further central bank easing from the Bank of Canada
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand may face pressure to normalize rates sooner amid surging house prices
ING see AUD higher after H1 though, AUD/USD to 0.8 in H2
- should benefit from a risk-positive environment globally
- and from generalized USD weakness as the global recovery gathers pace
