Sterling slides back down after OBR published fiscal forecasts ahead of the budget

  • GBP/USD tumbles to 1.3136 on the day
UK INFLATION PRICES

Easy come, easy go. The OBR has just done the impossible and unprecedented in basically just breaking the release of the entire (more or less) Autumn Budget. It's enough to get markets moving with UK chancellor Reeves set to announce £26 billion in tax hikes which will leave her with around £22 billion worth of headroom on the fiscal front. That said, she will be spending almost £12 billion more by the end of the same period. So, yeah.

The pound rallied initially with GBP/USD climbing to hit above 1.3200 but have now given all of the gains back and then some in a fall to 1.3136 on the day. At the same time, UK 10-year yields have also shot back up after a fall to 4.43% and are now at 4.53% on the day.

GBPUSD M5
GBP/USD 5-minute chart

It's a rather messy situation overall but unless Reeves messes up her delivery, which really can't be any much worse than this cock up in terms of release overlap/timing. But it seems that markets are already casting their vote in saying that this should be the last budget that she will deliver. Cue the political backlash.

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