Fundamental Overview
The USD regained some ground in the past days but the momentum stalled as December rate cut odds jumped following Fed’s Williams dovish comments.
As of now, the December rate cut odds stand around 70% but we won’t get much data before the FOMC meeting, so the focus will likely be mainly on jobless claims and ADP data. Weak data should keep weighing on the greenback, while strong data could provide some short-term support.
On the NZD side, the RBNZ is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the OCR to 2.25%. This will lower interest rates below the central bank’s estimated neutral range (2.5%-3.5%) and therefore is expected to be stimulative.
The market is pricing good chances of another cut in 2026 but if the RBNZ signals the end of the easing cycle, it could be taken as more hawkish and therefore support the New Zealand dollar, especially considering how much it has weakened in the past months.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD has been on a strong downtrend for a couple of months. We have a major trendline defining this downward momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the April lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.5850 level next.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a key resistance around the 0.5635 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the rally into the trendline.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the recent pullback. We can expect the buyers to step in around the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the weekly ADP jobs data and the US Consumer Confidence report. We will also get the September US PPI and Retail Sales reports. Tomorrow, we have the RBNZ rate decision and will also get the most recent US Jobless Claims figures. On Thursday, we have the US Thanksgiving holiday which is likely to make the final part of the week more rangebound.
