Monday starts quietly, with bank holidays in the U.S. in observance of Columbus Day and in Canada for Thanksgiving Day.
On Tuesday, Australia will release the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, while in the U.K., the focus will be on labor market data, including the average earnings index 3m/y, claimant count change, and the unemployment rate.
Later in the day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at a moderated discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Philadelphia, with questions from the audience expected.
Thursday will be busier, with Australia publishing its employment change and unemployment rate, while in the U.S., attention will turn to the PPI m/m, retail sales m/m, and potentially the weekly unemployment claims, but only if the ongoing government shutdown ends.This also applies to Friday, when the U.S. is scheduled to release housing market data, including building permits and housing starts.
Throughout the week, several FOMC members are also scheduled to deliver remarks.
In the U.K., the consensus for the average earnings index 3m/y is 4.7%, unchanged from the previous reading, while the unemployment rate is also expected to hold steady at 4.7%.
With wage growth still elevated and showing few signs of cooling, the Bank of England is unlikely to shift its policy stance in the near term. Persistent inflation pressures, combined with looming fiscal tightening, continue to weigh on household spending. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold through the end of the year.
The U.S. inflation report has been rescheduled for release on October 24, as announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This timing means the FOMC will have access to the latest inflation data ahead of its meeting at the end of the month.
Inflation in the U.S. remains above the Fed’s target. Consensus expectations point to a 0.4% monthly increase in the headline CPI, which would lift the annual rate to 3.1%, while core inflation is projected to hold steady at 3.1%.
The uptick in headline inflation is expected to be largely caused by energy, with gasoline prices and a rebound in energy services contributing most to the gains, according to Wells Fargo analysts. Although food prices have shown signs of stabilization, underlying inflationary pressures remain broad. This persistence underpins the Fed’s cautious approach and suggests policymakers will continue to stress vigilance regarding price dynamics.
In Australia, the consensus for the employment change is +20.0K versus the prior –5.4K, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge up from 4.2% to 4.3%.
A rebound in employment is anticipated this week, though Westpac analysts project a slightly smaller gain of around 15K, enough to keep the employment-to-population ratio steady near 64%.
They also highlight a shift in the composition of job creation. The “care economy,” which accounted for most of the employment growth through 2023–24, has seen its contribution roughly halve, while the market sector appears to be stabilizing as earlier weakness in hospitality fades.
Participation is expected to remain at 66.8%, and when combined with projected employment outcomes, this would result in an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Over the longer term, demographic trends are still expected to support a structurally higher participation rate.
In the U.S., the consensus for retail sales m/m is +0.4% versus the prior +0.6%, while core retail sales m/m are expected to rise 0.3% compared with 0.7% previously.
Retail sales data surprised to the upside last month, driven by firm auto sales, robust online activity, and higher prices. Even after adjusting for inflation, spending advanced at a solid pace, reinforcing signs that households remain willing to spend despite persistent price pressures.
The Q2 real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were revised up to a 2.5% pace, and Q3 spending now appears to be tracking closer to 3.0% annualized, roughly double earlier projections and consistent with 2024’s overall trend.
For September, retail sales are expected to rise 0.4%. However, headwinds are building: tariffs could increasingly strain household budgets, and as income growth moderates, consumer resilience may begin to wane, Wells Fargo analysts said.
