The changes on the day among major currencies are light with the dollar keeping steadier so far. There's really not much in it on the session as traders are all waiting on the US CPI report before making their next moves. Here's a snapshot of dollar pairs and their ranges so far on the day:
USD/JPY is creeping a little higher to 147.80 but in the context of this week, the move here doesn't stand out. The pair remains well caught in between its 100 and 200-day moving averages at 146.00 and 148.70 respectively.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD is just caught in orbit of 1.1700 amid large option expiries on the day. And the changes elsewhere are nothing that stands out either so far on the session.
As we look to the US CPI report later, all eyes will be on the dollar reaction to what the inflation numbers may mean for the Fed outlook.
If there is stronger evidence of tariffs passthrough on prices, that could change the equation for the Fed outlook by year-end. In turn, that will see the dollar react accordingly. For now, traders are pricing in ~68 bps of rate cuts by year-end with a 25 bps rate cut next week a slam dunk at the moment. So, that's the benchmark we'll have to work with once we get to the data later.
