Goldman Sachs eyes weaker dollar going into the turn of the year

  • The firm sees plenty of factors to support the case for a softer dollar into year-end
USD Dollar

Goldman Sachs makes a case that the slow and gradual release of delayed US economic data should "“reveal a softer run rate for the economy, particularly the labor market, that will clear the way for more policy easing and a weaker dollar from here to the end of the year". Adding that early signs should point towards softer momentum, even if so far what we're seeing in the data remains lagged - keeping FX volatility relatively subdued in general.

Besides that, a more stable risk sentiment globally and Fed rate cut expectations will just add to headwinds for the dollar in this period. And then there's also other drivers such as stronger intervention warnings by Tokyo in capping USD/JPY upside, the GBP not wilting after the more benign UK budget, and renewed strength in the CNY - all being supportive factors for a softer dollar across the board.

In tying to the same argument, Credit Agricole pointed to a multitude of different factors in why the dollar should be weaker through year-end. From yesterday: Seasonal patterns, fundamentals point to dollar selling in December - Credit Agricole

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